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unhooked admission at top LACs seems close to impossible

my d, a ny junior, has very good but not over the top stats, 97 avg, 33 act, will take it one more time and probably superscore to a 34 (needs to improve one point on any subsection). strong rigor, good, not great ecs. we've visited a number of schools, she's liked haverford, williams,swarthmore and colby. Colby on paper looks like a target, the others reaches. Given she's a white female and LACs small class size,varsity athletes, legacies, URMs, and desire for geo diversity, it doesn't seem like she has much chance unless she plays the ED card. and I'm not sure how much ED really helps as that's when we'll see the legacies/athletes apply. do I have this about right?

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