Lots of people post that four year graduation rate is a key factor in their choice of college. However, a college's four year graduation rate mostly reflects its admission selectivity and other student characteristics, with smaller effects based on the treatment effect of the college on the students.
http://heri.ucla.edu/DARCU/CompletingCollege2011.pdf appendix A lists a number of factors correlated to four, five, and six year graduation rates. Many of these are student (or parent) characteristics that are already "baked in" by the time the student is making application and matriculation decisions. However, there are some related to college choice:
* Cost: Concern about ability to finance college education and using student loans are negatives. So it is better to avoid pushing finances to the extreme limit of affordability, if one has the option to do so. (Also, the "skin in the game" tactic of forcing the student to take student loans even when not needed may not be a good idea.)
* Choice of school: Student is more likely to graduate from school that is his/her higher choice, although this is only reflected in five and six year rates, not four year rates.
* Number of colleges applied: More colleges applied to correlates to higher graduation rates.
* Distance of college from home: Greater distance has a negative correlation on five and six year graduation rates.
* Reason to attend: The following are correlated positively: admitted EA or ED, size of college, cost to attend, live near home, visit to campus, relatives wanted student to attend (five and six year rates), graduates get good jobs (five and six year rates). The following are correlated negatively: religious affiliation.
* Where student lives in frosh year: All living situations other than the on-campus dorm are correlated negatively with four year graduation rates. All except fraternity or sorority house were correlated negatively with five and six year graduation rates.
* Historically black college or university: Correlated positively with four, five, and six year graduation rates.
* Institutional type: In order of most favorable to least favorable correlation with four year graduation rates: Catholic four year college, other religious four year college, non-sectarian four year college, private university, public university, public four year college. Correlation with five and six year graduation rates was much lower.
Also, student's intended major has a correlation with graduation rates. Business, humanities (not art), and social studies are positively correlated with graduation rates, while engineering, health professions, science (not math or statistics), other technical, and art are negatively correlated with graduation rates.
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