The MacArthur Fellowship (aka "Genius" Awards) were announced this week and I thought it would be interesting since they each trace their beginnings within a few years of each other, to see how the USNews rankings line up with the cumulative total of "Genius " awards received by some of the nation's top colleges since its inception. There are some surprises. I'm only using the National Liberal Arts Colleges for now. The first numeral represents the number of MacArthur fellowships won; the second represents their ranking in the 2016 USNews poll:
Oberlin 11 (#24)
Swarthmore 10 (#4)
Amherst 8 (#2)
Williams 8 (#1)
Wesleyan 7 (#21)
Haverford 4 (#12)
Vassar 4 (#12)
Wellesley 4 (#3)
Pomona 4 (#7)
Carleton 3 (#7)
Reed 3 (#87)
Grinnell 2 (#19)
Hamilton 2 (#12)
Middlebury 1 (#4)
Davidson 1 (#9)
Bowdoin 1 (#6)
The results are even weaker when you limit them to just the last twenty years of the poll's existence:
Oberlin 9 (#24)
Swarthmore 7 (#4)
Wesleyan 5 (#21)
Williams 5 (#1)
Amherst 4 (#2)
Carleton 3 (#7)
Vassar 3 (#12)
Wellesley 3 (#3)
Pomona 2 (#7)
Reed 2 (#87)
Grinnell 2 (#19)
Hamilton 1 (#12)
Haverford 1 (#12)
Middlebury 1 (#4)
Davidson 1 (#9)
Bowdoin 1 (#6)
In other words, over the space of thirty years (more than enough time to collect longitudinal data) the USNews poll hasn't been very predictive of which colleges will produce the most geniuses.
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