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Estimating a student's likelihood of changing major and implications for college selection

http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/parents-forum/1922942-did-your-child-make-an-under-the-radar-major-change.html is a long thread about students changing major and issues with parental approval and communication. But, rewinding to the student's senior year in high school, that brings up two questions: 1. How well can the students themselves or their parents estimate the likelihood of staying in the original intended major versus changing major? (Of course, if the original intended major is "undecided", it will change.) 2. How should the intended major and the likelihood (or not) of changing major be accounted for when selecting colleges? Note that there are many aspects of question 2: a. Limiting college choices to those where the majors of interest exist and are of decent quality. b. Matriculating to a college where the intended major is strong, but other aspects of the college (cost, other majors or academic programs, non-academic factors, etc.) are less optimal. Could result in regret or need to transfer if the student changes major. c. Matriculating to a college where changing major is difficult because other majors that may be of interest are oversubscribed and have competitive admission to get into the major. d. Considering major-specific scholarships when deciding which college to matriculate. If the scholarship is necessary for affordability, then changing major could require transferring to a lower cost college. Otherwise, changing major could still result in higher costs. e. Applying to a specific more competitive major for frosh admission, versus applying to the school for general undeclared admission.

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